There have been plenty of weeks this season when I felt I had made great picks but was on the wrong side of variance, causing a losing week. Week 13 felt like the opposite, where a handful of late-game plays went my way, leading to a profitable week at 8-7-1 (+0.52 units). Some times, it's better to be lucky than good.
We'll take having some luck on our side for a change and try to turn that into momentum in the final stretch of the season. We're still in the red on the year at 97-94-4 for -3.65 units but a step in the right direction is always a good thing.
It's time to focus on having a second straight profitable performance in Week 14. We have a short week ahead of us with just 13 games to bet on with six teams off for the final BYE of the season. As always, I have a bet locked in on each of them. Let's dive into it.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
NFL Week 14 Best Bets for Every GamePackers vs. Lions Prediction
By virtually every metric you can look at, the Lions are the superior football team on both sides of the football, leading to me not hesitating to lay the 3.5 points on them on their home field. Offensively, they rank fourth in the NFL in EPA per play and first in success rate. The Packers rank eighth and 15th in those two respective stats.
Defensively, the Lions' defense has become one of the best units in the NFL, ranking third in opponent EPA per play and seventh in opponent success rate. The Packers rank ninth and 27th in those two areas.
It's also worth noting that Jared Goff now leads all quarterbacks in the EPA+CPOE Composite this season, while Love ranks 14th. I have more faith in the Packers in no single area, so give me the Lions to win and cover.
Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction
I simply can't justify a bet on the Jets at this point of the season. As I've written about for multiple weeks now, their defense has gone from a top-five unit to a bottom-five unit since they fired Robert Saleh in Week 5. Their offense hasn't been much better. Aaron Rodgers has been horrific, and Breece Hall has regressed to the point that the Jets get no help from their run game.
Last week a lesson learned to not bet on the Dolphins when they play in cold weather but now they're back home and can't afford to lose another game this season if they want to make the playoffs. Their offense still ranks in the top five in EPA and Success Rate since Tua returned to the lineup and now that they're on their home field, I wouldn't be shocked if this game finished in a blowout in their favor.
Browns vs. Steelers Prediction
Monday night's performance was a perfect example of why betting on the spread in games involving Jameis Winston is a bold proposal, no matter which side you take. He may throw for 400+ yards but he may also throw two pick-sixes resulting in his team not covering as touchdown underdogs. We find ourselves in a similar situation in Week 14 with the Browns once again being six-point underdogs.
Instead of participating on the spread, I'm just going to bet the OVER and hope for another vintage Jameis performance which would lead to points for one team or the other.
The Steelers offense has moved the ball well this season, but a 29th ranking in red zone offense has kept them from reaching their potential when it comes to putting points on the board. Now they face a Browns defense that's 25th in red zone defense so it could be a good time for Pittsburgh to bounce back in that area.
I think this total is a point too low. I'll take the OVER.
Panthers vs. Eagles Prediction
The Panthers have looked like a solid team in their most recent four games, but let's remember who this team is. They enter Week 14 ranking 28th in EPA per play and 31st in opponent EPA per play and while Bryce Young has improved, he still ranks just 36th in the league in EPA+CPOE composite amongst all quarterbacks who have played at least 100 snaps.
I don't know what they'll be able to offer to hang with an Eagles team that has emerged as one of the few true elite teams in the league this season. Saquon Barkley has put himself in the MVP conversation and now he gets to face a Panthers defense that ranks 31st in opponent Rush EPA and dead last in opponent rush success rate while allowing 4.8 yards per carry.
The Eagles are going to run through the Panthers like a hot knife through butter so it comes down to whether or not you can trust Bryce Young to score enough points to stay within 12 points of Philadelphia.
Raiders vs. Buccaneers Prediction
No matter who is at quarterbacks, the Raiders continue to have the worst offense in the NFL, ranking dead last in EPA per play and 28th in yards per play (4.9). The Buccaneers' defense may not be impressive, but they're good enough to hold the Raiders in check long enough for Tampa Bay to win with a margin.
The Buccaneers offense has become one of the best in the league, ranking inside the top 10 in nearly every metric including sixth in EPA per play and fifth in success rate. They're in a great spot to run away with this one on their home field.
Jaguars vs. Titans Prediction
Laying points on the Titans seems unfathomable, but I've been betting on them almost every week this season and I'm not going to stop now. You might be surprised to find out this team is 18th in the NFL in Net yards per Play this season, one spot above the Chiefs.
The Jaguars have no bite with Mac Jones at quarterback. Of 42 quarterbacks who have played at least 100 snaps this season, he ranks 39th in EPA+CPOE composite and 40th in adjusted EPA per play. As frustrating as Will Levis has been to watch and bet on, he's been far superior to Jones.
Then there are the two defenses. The Jaguars are dead last in opponent EPA per play and the Titans are 14th. Tennessee has shown flashes of greatness on that side of the football and they could be in a great spot to dominate a weapon-less Jaguars offense.
As ugly as it may be, I'll lay the points with Tennessee at home.
Saints vs. Giants Prediction
The only thing that was keeping the Giants together defensively was Dexter Lawrence, who has established himself as one of the very best defensive linemen in the league. Now, he's on injured reserve leaving the Giant's defense to be susceptible in every facet of the game.
Even if there's not much to brag about either team offensively, especially the Giants, I have to think a total of 40.0 is too low for a game involving two defenses that rank 24th and 31st in opponent yards per play. Derek Carr has also been better this season than he gets credit for, ranking 11th in EPA+CPOE composite this season, one spot above Patrick Mahomes and one spot below Brock Purdy.
I'll take the OVER in this NFC duel.
Falcons vs. Vikings Prediction
Kirk Cousins heads back to Minnesota with a game against his former team but this is unfortunately a horrific matchup for him. He has been horrific when pressured this season and now he faces a defense that's third in the NFL in pressure percentage.
The Falcons are broken on both sides of the ball and they need to make some tough decisions down the final stretch of the season. Their secondary is banged up, leaving room open against a dominant receiving core, and their offense will be able to do little against one of the best defenses in the league.
The Vikings lead the league in both Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate while allowing just 3.7 yards per carry which means leaning on their run game isn't an option for the Falcons. Instead, they'll have to rely on Kirk to make some magic against his former team which is not something I'm willing to bet on happening.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Prediction
The Seahawks and Cardinals defenses have been two of the most improved units in the NFL since Week 7, ranking sixth and eighth in opponent EPA per play in that time frame. They also have two of the better red zone defenses in the NFL, especially the Cardinals who come into this game seventh in red zone defense, allowing teams to score a touchdown just 48.78% of the time.
Just 22 points were scored the last time these two teams played against each other and while the rematch may not be to the same extreme, I do expect a low-scoring affair in this pivotal NFC West duel.
Bears vs. 49ers Prediction
I just can't quit the 49ers. They have had one of the unluckiest seasons I can remember a team having including now putting their top two running backs on injured reserve. With that being said, they've finally gone through playing a gauntlet of tough teams and should be in a great position to beat up on a Bears team that's imploding, including a recent firing of their head coach.
Despite all of their issues this season, the 49ers still rank third in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.0 while the Bears rank 31st at -1.1. I'm going to keep buying low on this San Francisco team.
Bills vs. Rams Prediction
The Rams' success after their slow start to the season has been largely due to their defense, which has stepped up in a big way. Since Week 7, they're seventh in opponent EPA per play and ninth in opponent success rate. They're also sixth in red zone defense (46.51%) and 10th in QB pressure rate.
The Rams, despite getting healthy have struggled offensively and Matt Stafford ranks around the middle of the pack in most quarterback metrics this season.
The Bills defense has also been fantastic of late, ranking fifth in opponent EPA per play since Week 7 while also ranking eighth in red zone defense.
This total is too high for a game involving these two great defenses.
Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction
It's time for us to call out the Chiefs for what they are; Frauds. If you take away previous seasons and just focus on the 2024 campaign, they are one of the worst 11-1 teams in NFL history and have not played nearly as well as their record indicates. I was willing to forgive poor performance early in the season but needing last-second plays to go in their favor to beat the likes of the Panthers and Raiders is enough for me to finally lose faith in this team.
Let's take a look at where they rank in key metrics:
Net Yards per Play: 19th (-0.1)EPA per play: 9thOpponent EPA per play: 15thRed Zone offense: 24th (52.08%)Red Zone defense: 10th (51.28%)Average scoring margin: 11th (+4.5)
The Chargers outrank them in every one of the above metrics except for EPA per Play (16th) yet they're this big of underdogs? I don't buy it.
Finally, the key to beating the Chiefs is stopping them on third down, which is where their offense thrives. The Chargers rank second in third down defense with opponents converting for a first down just 33.33% of the time. They're also second in opponent EPA and fifth in opponent success rate on third down, making them a perfect fit to take down the defending champs.
Keep the points, give me the Chargers on the moneyline on Sunday night.
Bengals vs. Cowboys Prediction
For the Bengals to have any shot at the postseason they need to win out and hope the Broncos implode in the final stretch of the season. That means their Monday Night Football game against the Dallas Cowboys is a must-win situation for them. They have scored 99 points in their last three games, losing all of them, but thankfully they now get to face a team that should struggle to put up points, no matter how poorly the Cincinnati defense plays.
The Cowboys offense now ranks 29th in the NFL in EPA per play and 27th in success rate. Cooper Rush will enter this game ranked dead last (42nd) amongst all quarterbacks who have played at least 100 snaps in EPA+CPOE composite this season and 38th in adjusted EPA per play.
Don't let the Cowboys' two recent wins fool you, they are a horrific team on both sides of the football and don't possess the firepower to keep up with the red-hot Bengals offense.
