It’s always difficult to get a good sense of the betting odds for Raiders games because diehard fans of the Silver and Black rarely hesitate to support them at the Vegas sportsbooks.
Last week, BetMGM sportsbooks needed the Titans to come through against the Raiders, but that was largely because of a high roller’s massive bet on Las Vegas’s home team. This player won half a million dollars because the Raiders hit on the moneyline, which closed at -200.
“The player that bet that wager was not a known Raider fan,” says Lamarr Mitchell, the executive director of trading for MGM Resorts/BetMGM. “We were very surprised when he came in on the Raiders. We were like, ‘Whoa.’ He had mentioned to us that he was going to come in with a big wager, but we weren’t expecting the Raiders, though.”
It would be shocking if this high roller bets on the Raiders moneyline again this week against the Chiefs. But there’s already been a good amount of money on the Raiders at +11.5 against the spread.
Mitchell is expecting Raiders fans to be all over their beloved team, especially if the line goes over 12 points before Sunday’s kick off in Kansas City. If the line begins to drop, Mitchell said the sharps could jump in to support the Chiefs.
“They [Raiders fans] typically bet them all the time,” Mitchell says. “This situation here I can’t imagine it not being the same. I think eventually we’ll need the Raiders. The Chiefs looked so good against the Lions.”
Usually, underdogs don’t get much support from the public—unless the Raiders are involved, of course. But this could be one of those rare weeks where the public backs a few underdogs. Mitchell said the Bengals getting +5.5 points at home against the Steelers on Thursday night could be enticing for many bettors, and not just the sharps.
“That +5.5 is pretty juicy right now,” Mitchell says. “With [Joe] Flacco getting a couple more days of practice with the Bengals, I think we’ll see money on the dog, especially from our sharp players.”
Mitchell also expects the Jaguars (+3) to get more money support before their home game in London against the Rams. He also mentioned that the sharps and public could be split on the Bears (-5) hosting the Saints.
Below is more insight from Mitchell, and we got plenty of valuable information from Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sportsbook. Here’s everything you need to know about the NFL Week 7 games.
Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 7
Feazel has Eagles (-1.5) at Vikings circled for this week’s Pros vs. Joes game.
The public is counting on the Eagles, who are on a two-game losing streak, to bounce back against the inconsistent Vikings. As for the sharps, they might not care about coach Kevin O’Connell’s QB decision between Carson Wentz and J.J. McCarthy. The pros are more focused on the Vikings being well rested after the bye week and now get to host a fatigued Eagles squad with problems on the offensive side.
“The public is jumping on Philly due to the short number and the Vikings' underwhelming start to the season,” Feazel says. “This line opened at Eagles -2.5 and has since moved to -1.5, even though the majority of the money is backing the Eagles. That reverse line movement signals sharp interest on the Vikings, setting up a classic Pros vs. Joes split.”
Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 7
Unfortunately for Feazel, he’s going to have to be a Titans fan this week. Not even Titans fans want to support this team right now with all the botched decisions they’ve made since firing Mike Vrabel, who took a year off before joining the Patriots this year.
Feazel expects all the money to be on the Patriots (-7) for Vrabel’s return to Tennessee on Sunday. He’s not holding his breath on a potential new coach bump for the Titans after the firing of Brian Callahan.
“One of the biggest liability spots this week is Patriots vs. Titans on the spread,” Feazel says. “It’s a matchup that Mike Vrabel likely circled on his calendar, given the opportunity to face his former team. The Titans have consistently been a popular fade this season, and the early dismissal of Callahan isn’t expected to provide any sort of bounce-back effect.”
Feazel is also concerned about the over hitting during Monday night’s game between the Lions and Buccaneers. As of Wednesday, the total was set at 52.5, which might not seem so high for the public.
“The public has been backing both teams throughout the season, and with this game kicking off , it’s positioned to attract even more attention,” Feazel says.
Odds Movement NFL Week 7
Surprisingly, the sharps and the public have been in agreement when it comes to taking the Lions (-5.5) at home over the Buccaneers. Mitchell said this game opened at -4.5 and was quickly bet up in favor of Detroit.
“This could be one of those games for us where the sharps and the Joes are on the same side,” Mitchell says. “That’s what it looks like now. We’ll see what happens when it gets closer to Monday night.
“With that chip on Baker’s [Mayfield] shoulder, that +5.5, to me, seems like an awfully high number for a guy who’s playing at an MVP-caliber level.”
I’m with Mitchell here. I won’t be betting against Mayfield. That number is way too high for a Buccaneers team that just beat the Seahawks and 49ers in back-to-back weeks.
Big Winner From Last Week
A bettor won a $312,000 bet at the Caesars Sportsbook thanks to Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo beating up the Eagles last week. As it turned out, this bettor didn’t need the 7.5 points against the spread, as New York cruised to a 34–17 victory.
As for another six-figure bet that hit at the Caesars Sportsbook, someone parlayed the Chiefs (-2.5) and the under (51.5) for $250,000. Kansas City beat Detroit handily, 30–17.
Manzano’s NFL Week 7 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: Panthers (-1.5) at Jets
The Panthers have been awful on the road, with all three of their wins coming at home. But I’ll bet that the road trend ends because Carolina has something with running back Rico Dowdle, who’s coming off back-to-back games with at least 200 yards from scrimmage.
It also helps that the Panthers are playing the 0–6 Jets to possibly give them their first road win of the season.
Enticing Bet: Colts (+1.5) at Chargers
This is a tough one, but it’s hard to side with the Chargers, considering how bad the offensive line has been for Justin Herbert. The defense has also struggled since losing Khalil Mack. If the Colts’ red-hot offense gets going again, I don’t see the Chargers keeping pace.
Moneyline Dog: Falcons (+114) at 49ers
The Falcons have been good to me this season. They continued to be ignored despite wins over the Vikings, Commanders and Bills. Bijan Robinson has been unstoppable and the defense is vastly underrated.
SuperDog: Bengals (+5.5) vs. Steelers
The Bengals are desperate and the Steelers are overrated. I can definitely see this AFC North clash going down to the wire.
Flacco is going to need a better start than he had in his Bengals debut against the Packers. Even with the slow start, Cincinnati still covered in Green Bay.
Not So Risky: Texans (+3) at Seahawks
I’ve been saying for weeks I’m not sold on the Seahawks. They were impressive in the dominant win over the Jaguars. But I like the Texans here because they have the better defense and C.J. Stroud turned a corner for the offense before the bye week.
And maybe this is not a risky bet for the road team, because the Seahawks have struggled at home during the Mike Macdonald era, for whatever reason.
Stay Away: Lions (-5.5) vs. Buccaneers
This line is too high and a little disrespectful for the 5–1 Buccaneers. I can see Tampa Bay pulling off the upset, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Detroit’s offense bounce back in a big way after the letdown in Kansas City. I rather stay away from this NFC showdown.
Parlay: Giants (+7) at Broncos; Cowboys (+2.5) vs. Commanders; Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Packers
Dart’s Giants play better at home, but I can’t trust the Broncos’ sluggish offense to cover as a touchdown favorite. The Cowboys burned me last week in Carolina, but I still believe in Dak Prescott’s offense. As for the Cardinals, the offense looked better under backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Hopefully he starts again for Arizona, while Kyler Murray works his way back from injury.
Favorite Fave: Eagles (-1.5) at Vikings
Sorry, sharps. I can’t support the Vikings because of their shaky quarterback situation. Wentz can’t be trusted, and McCarthy might not be ready to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Expect a get-right game for Philadelphia.
Best Over/Under Total: Lions-Buccaneers (under 52.5, -108)
I’m going to go against the public here. I won’t bet on the spread, but I can see these two teams having a low-scoring, playoff-like game.
